The Fog of War -weaponization of social media and how propaganda is amplified. Updated with ICC prosecutor’s statement
Just because you see it on Twitter it does NOT mean it’s true. At times like this I wish I was on Twitter, I could sort the disinformation & misinformation with speed & accuracy
Prerequisite Caveat - I am not nor have I ever pretended to be a disinformation or misinformation expert. Conversely my limited time on Twitter, when necessary I did my level best to help my followers discern facts from disinformation and misinformation. I am going to remind you of one particular report that helped me better identify “the fog of war” because this Finnish Institute of International Affairs report became my true north and it helped me to understand how Russia uses both disinformation and misinformation.. FIIA Report embedded below
FIIA REPORT 43 - Russia’s Hybrid War in Ukraine -Breaking the Enemy’s Ability to Resist
I am hoping a few of my readers will remember the various threads I created on Twitter that drilled down on the FIIA’s report…at the time my purpose was to help others and to share a report that helped me understand the nuances and complexity of Ukraine and Russia…
..and not that this matters, on February 15 & 16 respectively, I sent a series of messages to a few influential folks on Twitter… telling each of then to watch this space because it certainly appeared Putin would use this as a pretext to send additional Russian Military to invade another Sovereign Country.
—which included the following State of Duma press release;
—again I’m not a foreign policy expert but even I could see the emergence of Putin’s playbook getting ramped up. By (unlawfully) recognizing these territories, Putin would use that as cover to push the Russian Military further into Ukraine. Ukraine Sovereignty and International Laws be damned. Assuming arguendo that this was/is Putin’s rationale (again that’s an assumption on my part so I encourage you to be skeptical, I won’t take it personally)… to invade Ukraine. As many of you know my immediate family has served in the US Army for (a collective) 7+ decades, and one statement that my grandfather told me years ago, still rings true:
…You attack every where - you win no where…
Meaning that if you decided to send nearly 200K soldiers to invade a geographically large Sovereign Country (such as Ukraine) tactically you’ve spread your resources entirely too thin, hence “you win no where” again you can disagree with my assessment, I won’t take it personally.
What is “the fog of war”…
Generally speaking the phrase “the fog of war” is a perfect alliteration of how “fog” can reduce one’s ability to discern fact from propaganda. One of the very first casualties of War or any intense armed conflict is: the truth and facts… and as much as I do not want to admit this - it needs to be said
..Validimr Putin is an expert in weaponizing “the fog of war” to his advantage…
…because in order to confront an opposing party, you need to understand their weaknesses and strengths. That how you out maneuver them (at least in my line of work that’s what we do for our clients):
Again I’m not a disinformation, misinformation or foreign policy expert. However just to reiterate; I genuinely encourage my readers to be skeptical. In my view skepticism is actually healthy and no I don’t take it as a personal affronted because facts stand on their own. Notwithstanding the purpose of this article is to draw your attention to the pervasive and pernicious “fog of war” —and the proliferation of it across nearly all social media platforms. Keep in mind the “fog” is purposefully, meaning it’s specifically used to cloud one’s ability to identify Fact v Fiction.
Additionally in war (or in breaking news) facts can change hour by hour —if not minute by minute. That doesn’t necessarily mean that those facts should be ubiquitously viewed as disinformation or misinformation, it simply means new facts now supersede “old facts”
However I’d like to walk you through what certainly appears to be either disinformation, misinformation or propaganda. Understanding one thing, in war there a two opposing parties. Each have a message. I do not fault the Ukraine Government for what some view as propaganda. ICYMI last night this was posted on Instagram. What you may not know is, for many years one of my siblings was our “security attaché” for Ukraine. And I often take their input with the solemnity it demands. When I have questions- they help me see a different point of view or they tell me “don’t ask me such a stupid question, I thought you were smart”…if you want to see the embodiment of the Ukrainian people, just watch this short video. I’m not crying, no you’re crying…
As I said last night on Instagram -my admiration and complete awe of the Ukrainian people is something to behold. On an emotional and intellectual level I understand the need for President Zelenskyy to give his people hope. Ukrainians are tough as nails. Do I think the Ukrainian People are tough as nails? Yes, absolutely. I said as much yesterday when someone tag me to an Instagram video.
Germany did an absolute about face…
This is actually pretty important because the shift here is seismic and it also shows Germany’s willingness to reevaluate previous positions…see the recent WSJ article
The U-turn was triggered by the Russian invasion, which Mr. Scholz said marked a turning point.
“It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin's invading army… That is why we are delivering 1,000 antitank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to our friends in Ukraine.”
Berlin has also allowed the Netherlands to deliver German-made weapons to Ukraine, breaking with its strict refusal to authorize the delivery of lethal weapons to Ukraine, German government officials said.
The government said 400 handheld antitank missiles and 14 armored vehicles would be delivered directly from Germany via Poland. Germany will also donate 10 metric tons of fuel to the Ukrainian armed forces, one official said.
“Ghost of Ukraine” who wants a few receipts?
Shortly after 11:30PM on February 25, 2022 I noticed what appeared to be the birth of a disinformation and misinformation campaign. It’s possible that I am wrong or that I’m making a mountain out of a mole hill. However late last night I asked someone on Twitter to create a thread because I could see the train wreck coming in slow motion and since I’m not on Twitter it seemed like the responsible thing to alert users that they might be (unwittingly) amplifying actual disinformation or misinformation (both are applicable here)
The “ghost of Ukraine” is likely disinformation or misinformation or some asshole who wants to gain notoriety while Russia is bombing the crap out of Ukraine — don’t get me wrong do I think the Ukraine Military is doing an incredible job defending their homeland. Yes, absolutely.
Nexus # 1 see WayBack Archive for the Tweet. As previously mentioned late last night I asked someone to do a quick thread because I found myself watching, like in slow motion a collision of disinformation and misinformation.
SHOT👇🏻Now I’d like you to look at the account’s history see WayBack archive this user openly admitted “their source” was the Former Ukrainian President Poroshenko…
CHASER → https://tinyurl.com/mrxt4h9z that’s a tiny URL that I created for the reverse image search. And this is why one shouldn’t just blindly trust Poroshenko (put a pin in that, I’ll come back to it later) because Poroshenko’s disinformation tweet that’s being insanely amplified by several botnets -again I could be wrong, but I don’t think I am. In a moment I’m going to explain why Poroshenko’s re-emergence in Kyiv could be incredibly problematic.
Nexus # 2 - Now I’d like to show you something (see WayBack Machine Archive) and this is important, so please pay attention because it’s a tiny yet highly nuanced detail —generally speaking Russians spell Kiev whereas the correct spelling is Kyiv —additionally the person who’s running this account; never tweets in Ukrainian, mainly their tweets are in English or in German. spelling and now @KievsGhost
Within the past 11 hours;
the person changed the Twitter handle from @KievsGhost -notice the incorrect spelling of Kyiv? It’s NOT Kiev the correctly spelling is Kyiv
the Twitter Bio Originally show “proud Ukrainian” see WayBack Archive
the Twitter Bio was recently changed to the correct spelling of Kyiv @KyivsGhosts
the person added “proud Ukrainian living in Germany” — no one had actually archived this account -last night and today I decided to archive both iterations of this account. @KievsGhost versus @KyivsGhosts
the purported “source” is the former *and disgraced* Ukrainian President Poroshenko and that’s highly problematic
Furthermore if you look at the static Twitter User ID (this is a data point that does not change, hence “static”) —> https://tweeterid.com you’ll note that @kyivsghosts => 1466351807991590918 is the same ID as @kievsghost => Error: Not Found“
I could bore you with how I came to the conclusion that account had changed its Twitter “name” mainly I dumped a bunch of tweets into GitHub and traced the static Twitter ID.
Now to the purported video of “KyivsGhost” shooting down a Russian aircraft —incidentally one of the main accounts pushing that disinformation has now been suspended by Twitter. Incredibly within minutes of @KyivsGhosts suspension —a new account popped up @KyivsGhost
Right about now, aren’t you glad that someone (like Moi) went ahead and archived both accounts? @KievsGhost AND @KyivsGhosts This shouldn’t surprise you. Again when I was on Twitter one of the primary things I did was to archive accounts that were suspected as tweeting disinformation or misinformation. No really I checked a few internet archive engines and no one had archived their account, so I took the liberty of doing so. Mainly for posterity but also for other researchers because once Twitter suspends an account that data disappears… unless it’s been archived.
Fact Check Survey Says;
.-I assume that a Fact Check from the Associated Press is acceptable…
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. The footage is from the video game Digital Combat Simulator, according to the YouTube user who uploaded the clip on Feb. 24.
THE FACTS: Social media users on Thursday misrepresented footage from a video game showing close combat between two fighter jets, claiming the clip showed the Ukrainian air force shooting down a Russian fighter.
“Footage of a MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force shooting down a Su-35 fighter jet of#Russia’s Air Force over Ukraine’s capital#Kyiv today,” reads one false tweet.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine’s official Twitter account also shared the clip with the false caption.
Would you accept SNOPES as a credible Fact Check Organization?
With respect to the Ministry of Defense for Ukraine, please note that I am in no way attempting to castigate them for tweeting out that false video. It is understandable that this could have been an honest mistake. However this does highlight how “the fog of war” can sometimes unwittingly make an “official” Government account. There’s also a false assumption that misinformation and disinformation are one in the same. They are not.
Misinformation: information that is false, but which may be believed by the person spreading it, or posted in good faith. It can also be posted in “bad faith,” or with a political goal in mind, but be believed to be true at the same time.
Disinformation: false information which the person spreading it knows to be false.
And that propaganda is bad. I would encourage you to read this recent Washington Post Article —which does an excellent job (and is far more eloquent than Moi) explaining disinformation, misinformation, propaganda and “the fog of war” -it is an in-depth report and I think you’d find reading that article beneficial.
Before I discuss Poroshenko, I’d like to be clear, the next section of this article has speculation. That’s me saying that right now I can’t factually prove my assertion, but in my industry I’m paid pretty well to make accurate forecast. Notwithstanding it is also possible that Poroshenko’s recent media appearances can be easily explained that “he loves his Country enough to take up arms and help Ukraine push Russia out” —again that could very well be the case but I do think it’s important to point out why Poroshenko returned to Ukraine…
Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko & Treason
Have any of you wondered by Poroshenko is back in Ukraine, specifically in Kyiv? Or why all of a sudden he’s making a bunch of news appearances?
If we really need to go down “I need a favor tho…” memory lane —fine let’s do that too —see November 2019 archived thread or this long forgotten archived thread —all of which was the lead up to Trump’s first impeachment. You do understand that Trump via Giuliani and the likes of Lev Parnas & Igor Forman actually lobbied Poroshenko to “announce a criminal investigation into then candidate Joe Biden” - Again if you’ve finally figured out why in mid January 2022 Poroshenko returned to Ukraine - he did so to face charges of Treason
Poroshenko is being investigated for alleged treason linked to the financing of Russian-backed separatist fighters through illegal coal sales while in office in 2014-15. His party accused Zelenskiy of a reckless attempt to silence political opposition.
“If you ask me if I will be arrested, definitely not. Not because I am so confident but because I have no, absolutely zero reason for tha...I return to Ukraine to fight for Ukraine, not to fight with Zelenskiy,” Poroshenko told reporters in Warsaw.
“We are demanding unity of the whole democratic forces to protect Ukraine...I am absolutely optimistic about the possibility of this unity, of democratic, responsible opposition forces,” Poroshenko said.
And perhaps I’m being unfairly cynical but part of me thinks that Poroshenko’s recent media saturation, which shows him carrying an AK47 —coupled with what certain appears to be Poroshenko is the nexus to the “Ghost of Ukraine” aka “KievsGhost” only to later be corrected as “KyivsGhost” —something in my gut tells me, Poroshenko & his montley crew (let’s not forget this October 2021 Reuters article: Ukraine widens probe against Kremlin ally Medvedchuk
…of colluding with officials during Poroshenko’s administration to buy coal from mines in separatist-held areas in 2014-2015 as a way of financing the separatists….Medvedchuk, whose political party is the second largest in parliament, is a Ukrainian citizen but has close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has said the Russian leader is godfather to his daughter.
See the December 23, 2021 European Union Full statement by MEP Witold Jan WASZCZYKOWSKI regarding the Zelenskyy administration’s treason case against Poroshenko and his inner circle. Again this is important because President Zelenskyy’s administration has cited Poroshenko and Medvedchuk colluded with Russia to help finance: the very same regions (see Members of the State Duma voted for the draft appeal to the Russian President for LPR and DPR recognition) that Putin recently “recognized”
—moreover our Intelligence Community (IC) had been breathtakingly spot on with their assessment concerning Ukraine and Russia - so when recent news reports suggested that our IC believes (with a high degree of confidence) that Russia/Putin’s plan is to “decapitate” the current Ukrainian Government and place one of Putin’s puppets -and I have played my murder board out at least nine times and I keep landing back to Poroshenko… again I could be wrong and I genuinely encourage skepticism regarding my Poroshenko assertion…
The point and summary… be smart and be skeptical
The presentation of facts surrounding the “Ghost of Kyiv” is my attempt to help readers understand that this is likely disinformation and in some cases (inadvertent) misinformation. Again just because you see it on Twitter does not mean that it’s grounded in facts.
And lastly I apologize for not publishing an article yesterday. I pulled a nearly 19 hour work day and I had no gas left in my writing tank. However your obligatory dose of saltwater therapy — I still do not understand why NATO doesn’t have a flag emoji and I may have inadvertently overlooked a NATO member…
Have a great weekend and I’ll see you on Tuesday of next week -since I didn’t publish an article on February 25, 2022 here’s your extra dose of salt water therapy
International Criminal Court…
In other related news, on February 25, 2022 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued the following statement which reaffirmed the ICC’s jurisdiction. I am not an international law expert, but my assumption is bombing kindergartens, random apartment buildings and total indifference to “civilian causalities” likely violates numerous International Laws, Laws of War. Clearly Putin’s grotesque human rights violations further affirms his indifference to rules of engagement for most civil societies. Putin is a small man. Putin is evil. Putin presents an existential threat not only to Europe but to the world. Again Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: “I have been closely following recent developments in and around Ukraine with increasing concern.” His statement further states:
I remind all sides conducting hostilities on the territory of Ukraine that pursuant to the declaration lodged on 8 September 2015, accepting jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court ("ICC" or the "Court"), my Office may exercise its jurisdiction over and investigate any act of genocide, crime against humanity or war crime committed within the territory of Ukraine since 20 February 2014 onwards…
Any person who commits such crimes, including by ordering, inciting, or contributing in another manner to the commission of these crimes, may be liable to prosecution before the Court, with full respect for the principle of complementarity. It is imperative that all parties to the conflict respect their obligations under international humanitarian law.
My Office has also received multiple queries on the amendments to the Rome Statute with respect to the crime of aggression, which came into force in 2018, and the application of those amendments to the present situation. Given that neither Ukraine nor the Russian Federation are State Parties to the Rome Statute, the Court cannot exercise jurisdiction over this alleged crime in this situation.
The Russian Bear meets Ukraine’s Mama Bears…
Russia is sometimes referred to as “the Bear” or “poking the Bear” to be clear, what we, and the entire world are bearing witness to is Ukraine, the “Mama Bears” —rising up to defend and protect all Ukrainians. That in of itself shows just how tough Ukrainians are and their patriotism is with out equal. President Zelenskyy has truly risen to the “dark” occasion and the test of a true leader is what they do in moments of crisis. In my view President Zelenskyy’s leadership, candor to Ukrainians and to the world has been breathtaking.
What the Russian Bear doesn’t understand is the collective Ukrainians Mama Bears have risen up. They do so to protect their young, in addition to defending the Sovereignty of Ukraine and all Ukrainians . And once you have thoroughly pisses off mothers, grandmothers, aunts and sisters —may God have mercy on your soul. Putin’s aggression isn’t just evil, it is the worst kind of evil. Putin has purportedly deployed mobile crematoriums (also The Guardian’s YouTube Video) It is unclear if Putin’s intent is to hide the Russian casualties, nonetheless we are talking about a murderous dictator who in 1999 bombed several apartments complexes in Russia so it’s not a far fetched assumption that Putin’s deployment of mobile crematoriums is yet another chilling and grotesque reason why he is such a threat.
Glory to Ukraine and may God continue to protect all Ukrainians…
I will let Thomas Payne’s “The Crisis” have the last word (or you can view the original document via this Library of Congress link
“THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph” -Thomas Payne December 23, 1776 “The Crisis”
I went to run errands & at one stop CNN was on interviewing Poroshenko & it set my teeth on edge. I remember a lot even though each day feels like a mountain of new information to wade through. Thank you Filey!❤️
I followed you on Twitter and depended on you for clarification and explanation of topics. So glad I found you again. Thank you for all you do